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02/01/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In the 2007 NFL season, the New England Patriots reached the Super Bowl on the strength of an extraordinarily explosive offense that contained a record-setting quarterback, a wide receiver with over 100 catches and another with six Pro Bowl citations to his credit.
In the 2011 NFL season, the New England Patriots also reached the Super Bowl on the strength of an extraordinary explosive offense that contained a record- setting quarterback, a wide receiver with over 100 catches and another with six Pro Bowl citations to his credit.
So what's changed, if anything, in the four years in between?
Well for starters, that decorated wide receiver in 2007 was Randy Moss, a controversial acquisition prior to that season who ended up setting a new league standard with 23 touchdown receptions in one of the most dominant offensive campaigns ever produced.
The Patriots hoped history would repeat itself when the team traded for the equally-accomplished and polarizing Chad Ochocinco in late July, but weren't able to capture lightning in a bottle this time. The colorful veteran had the least productive season of his 11-year career, finishing with a mere 15 catches while barely seeing the field during his new team's playoff run.
If solely comparing the numbers of those two star players, it's hard to make an argument that this current version of the New England offense could actually be superior to the nearly unstoppable juggernaut that put up an NFL-record 589 points during a 16-0 regular season in 2007.
But when considering that Tom Brady didn't have Rob Gronkowski or Aaron Hernandez to throw to that year, such a statement suddenly doesn't seem as far- fetched.
The sensational second-year duo has helped to revolutionize a tight end position that's traditionally been viewed as a secondary outlet for quarterbacks, shattering much more than stereotypes in their instant ascension to stardom. The pair's combined 2011 totals of 169 catches, 2,237 yards and 24 touchdowns were by far the most by a tight end tandem in NFL history, well ahead of the 163 grabs and 1,927 yards compiled by a foursome of San Diego Chargers in 1984.
Gronkowski also etched his name into the individual record books with a spectacular sophomore season that saw the punishing 22-year-old rack up 1,327 receiving yards and an NFL-best 17 touchdown catches, both the most ever by a tight end. He would add three more scoring grabs in New England's 45-10 shellacking of Denver in the AFC Divisional Playoffs, a game in which the 2010 second-round draft choice hauled in 10 Brady passes for 145 yards.
Though Hernandez's stats aren't quite as gaudy, the athletic Connecticut native still made a sizeable contribution to an offense that amassed the third-most net passing yards (5,084) in a season in NFL annals. He came through with 79 catches and 910 receiving yards despite sitting out a pair of games with a knee sprain, surpassing the 100-yard mark three times over the course of the year.
"Those guys are exceptional tight ends and they've been Brady's go-to guys all year long along with [slot receiver] Wes Welker," said New York Giants safety Antrel Rolle, whose team will once again be the Patriots' Super Bowl opponent in yet another striking similarity between the 2007 and 2011 seasons. "They present a great challenge."
Rolle and his defensive mates may be catching a giant break in this championship rematch, however, after Gronkowski suffered a significant sprain of his left ankle in New England's narrow victory over Baltimore in the AFC title game on Jan. 22. Though the invaluable All-Pro had shed his walking boot during Tuesday's Media Day and is fully expected to play in the Super Bowl, it's likely he'll be limited physically to at least some extent.
"He's such a huge weapon and causes so many mismatches it makes it hard for defenses to focus on one player," said Hernandez. "Obviously if he's a hundred percent, that's what we need."
While having Gronkowski at potentially less than full strength is an obvious concern, it's not as if the Patriots will be lacking offensive options when they take the field at Indianapolis' Lucas Oil Stadium seeking to avenge their 17-14 loss to the Giants in Super Bowl XLII. Not only can New England boast a three-time champion quarterback in Brady, whose 5,235 passing yards in 2011 ranks as the second-highest amount ever, but the ever-reliable Welker came through with his fourth 100-catch season in five years and fellow wideout Deion Branch was the MVP of New England's Super Bowl XXXIX triumph over Philadelphia seven years ago.
And of course, there's Hernandez, whose ability to excel in a number of different roles has made the Patriots an even more difficult foe to defend. Though a bit undersized by tight-end standards at 6-foot-2 and 245 pounds, the 22-year-old's above-average speed and agility allows creative coordinator Bill O'Brien to often deploy him as a jacked-up wide receiver who often lines up in the slot, and he's even been utilized as a running back at times to add another wrinkle for opponents. In the Divisional Round rout of the Broncos, Hernandez led New England with 61 rushing yards on five carries.
The 6-foot-6, 265-pound Gronkowski is more the prototypical tight end whose remarkable exploits as a receiver often overshadow his prowess and value as an in-line blocker.
"Those two guys complement each other well," noted Patriots head coach Bill Belichick. "They compete against each other in a good way. They learn from each other. They've done a great job for us over the past two seasons. I'm glad we have them."
Below is a capsule look at the offense of the New England Patriots, with regular season statistics in parentheses::
Quarterback: Brady (5235 passing yards, 39 TD, 12 INT) had already entered this postseason with a laundry list of achievements, and the two-time league MVP further enhanced his legacy by tying an NFL playoff record with six touchdown passes in the Denver game. He then matched boyhood idol Joe Montana for the most postseason wins (16) by a signal-caller in the AFC Championship ousting of Baltimore, despite tossing two interceptions and playing poorly in his own analysis. The 34-year-old has still generated an excellent 25-to-5 touchdown- to-interception ratio during the 10-game win streak the Patriots bring into Indianapolis, and the 39 scoring strikes he accounted for in the regular season were the second-most of his glorious career.
Running Backs: Though it lacks a true standout, New England's backfield-by- committee approach has provided a useful complement to the team's passing proficiency. Leading rusher BenJarvus Green-Ellis (667 rushing yards, 11 TD) is a strong between-the-tackles performer who's scored 24 touchdowns over the past two seasons, though the undrafted free-agent's most impressive stat is the zero fumbles over 562 career touches he's had over his four-year tenure. That impeccable track record is the main reason why he's ahead of more-talented rookie Stevan Ridley (441 rushing yards, 1 TD), benched for the AFC Championship after losing a fumble against Denver the week prior, on the depth chart. Former Jets castoff Danny Woodhead (351 rushing yards, 1 TD, 18 receptions) now holds down the third-down role held for years by 13-year vet Kevin Faulk, who's been used sparingly since returning from an ACL tear in midseason.
Wide Receivers: No New England player benefited more by the emergence of Gronkowski and Hernandez than Welker (122 receptions, 1569 yards, 9 TD), whose 1,569 receiving yards eclipsed Moss' club season mark set in 2007 and ranked second in the NFL this year, and the prolific slot specialist was a real handful for the Giants in both Super Bowl XLII (11 catches, 103 yards) as well as the Patriots' 24-20 loss to New York back in November (9 catches, 136 yards). Branch (51 receptions, 5 TD) also owns a wealth of big-game experience, having been an integral part of two previous championship teams during his first tour of duty with the organization from 2002-06, but Ochocinco (15 receptions, 1 TD) has been essentially an afterthought following a slow adjustment to a new scheme, having fallen behind both Welker clone Julian Edelman and ex-Jaguars washout Tiquan Underwood in the pecking order late in the season.
Tight Ends: The health status of Gronkowski (90 receptions, 1327 yards, 17 TD) has been one of the most followed storylines of this year's Big Game, and for good reason. He was a big factor in New England's Week 9 meeting with the Giants, netting 101 yards and a touchdown on eight catches, and eight of Brady's 12 interceptions during the regular season came on plays in which Gronkowski and sidekick Hernandez (79 receptions, 7 TD) weren't on the field together. Hernandez has been more of a focal point as of late, however, having averaged six catches and 85 yards over the Patriots' six most recent wins.
Offensive Line: Usually an unsung part of New England's sustained success, this five-man group has held up pretty well in 2011 despite two key regulars, center Dan Koppen and right tackle Sebastian Vollmer, having missed the majority of the season due to injuries. The Patriots have started three players since longtime pivot man Koppen fractured his ankle in the Week 1 opener, with capable substitute Dan Connolly manning the position for most of the way and filling in adequately, and promising rookie Nate Solder has earned his stripes by starting 13 times in place of Vollmer, who hasn't played since November because of an ankle problem but will be ready if needed for the Super Bowl. The remainder of the line is loaded with experience and prestige, as guards Logan Mankins and Brian Waters have been named to 10 Pro Bowls between them and left tackle Matt Light has served as Brady's trusted blind-side protector since breaking into the league in 2001.
<< Nets pick up G Bogans
East Rutherford, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Seeking to bolster its defensive
performance, the New Jersey Nets signed 6-foot-5 free agent guard Keith Bogans
on Wednesday.
Per team policy, contract terms were not disclosed.
"Keith will
<< Rams and Rebels duke it out in Sin City
Las Vegas, NV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Off to their best start since the 1991-92
campaign, the UNLV Runnin' Rebels find themselves ranked 11th in the nation
and tied for the top spot in the Mountain West Conference as they prepare for
the arrival of
<< Broncos battle 17th-ranked Aztecs
San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Trying to win their first conference game as
a member of the Mountain West, the Boise State Broncos face one of their
toughest tests yet as they tangle with 17th-ranked San Diego State at Viejas
Arena tonight.
<< Huskies and Hoyas square off Big East action
Washington, D.C. (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Connecticut Huskies have made their
way to the nation's capital for tonight's Big East Conference showdown with
the 14th-ranked Georgetown Hoyas.
UConn is hoping to put the brakes on a three-game slide
Penguins claim F O'Reilly off re-entry waivers >>
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Pittsburgh Penguins claimed forward Cal
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The 25-year-old has registered two goals and four assists in 27 combined games
with Nashvi
Wilshere suffers another injury setback >>
London, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Arsenal and England midfielder Jack
Wilshere will spend further time on the sidelines after developing a stress
fracture in his right foot.
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Newcastle's Cabaye handed three-match ban >>
Newcastle, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Newcastle midfielder Yohan Cabaye has
failed in his appeal to the English Football Association over a violent
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Pirates ink veteran hurler Cruz to minor league deal >>
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Pittsburgh Pirates on Wednesday signed
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The 33-year-old right-hander went 5-0 with a 3.88 earned run average
Teams that should be in: Michigan State, Indiana
Work left to do: Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa
Behind the big two, the pecking order might be in a bit of flux. Has Michigan State passed Indiana after handling the Hoosiers in East Lansing? Where is Illinois in that mix? What looked like a four-big league last week could be morphing into five -- and even six is not unthinkable at this point if everything breaks right.
Should be in:
Michigan State [21-8 (8-6), RPI: 20, SOS: 15] The Spartans made it four-for-four on the homestand, a gigantic accomplishment that leaves them in extremely good shape. MSU is only 1-6 on the road and is at Michigan and at Wisconsin to close things out, meaning the date with the Wolverines on Tuesday looms very, very large. Beating Texas early will hold up well, as will the rout of Bradley and the win over BYU, but will 8-8 be enough? It very well could be, as the computer numbers are good, but why chance it?
Indiana [18-9 (8-6), RPI: 24, SOS: 32] Hmm ... good thing the last two are at Northwestern and home to Penn State, because IU might want to get both to feel completely safe after dropping its third in the last four, fading after halftime at Michigan State. Who knew the best nonconference win would be over Southern Illinois, which is a gift that keeps on giving for the Hoosiers. The win over Wisconsin also looks good on the mantel.
Work left to do:
Illinois [21-9 (9-6), RPI: 31, SOS: 25] A good performance at Penn State leaves the Illini in pretty good shape. Can they go to Iowa and take care of business to really look on their way? That's a huge game, as there is a possible cluster of teams that will end at 9-7. Illinois beat Bradley, but has lost to Xavier. A 9-7 mark and a semifinals trip in Chicago could be enough with the computer profile hanging in there, but it would be better not to mess around, clinching at least a tie for third.
Purdue [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 28] Couldn't get it done at Iowa, but did win at Northwestern to put 9-7 squarely in sight. Where does that leave the Boilermakers, though? Even if they beat Minnesota and Northwestern at home, that won't help the computer numbers. Nonconference wins over Virginia, DePaul and Oklahoma are solid, but not spectacular. The Boilers very well might need an upset in the B10 quarters to have a legit claim.
Michigan [19-10 (7-7), RPI: 55, SOS: 53] Well, Michigan did what it needed to do, winning at Minnesota to take control of its fate. The Wolverines have Michigan State and an already-wrapped-up-the-league Ohio State at home to close, so the chances are there. Win both and we can talk. There is no marquee win yet in the profile, and the Wolverines were splattered in several games against name opponents. A mediocre computer profile fueled by a lack of road wins isn't helping, either.
Iowa [16-12 (8-6), RPI: 80, SOS: 64] For the sake of being complete, we'll add Iowa, this season's Stanford. It's plausible that the Hawkeyes could get to 10-6 (at Penn State, vs. Illinois left), but where does that leave them after a gruesome nonconference performance where the best win was over ... Toledo? Iowa State? Cornell?? If they get to 10-6, we can start to look at what they need to do in the B10 tourney, although my gut sense is that they would need to make the final and have knocked off Ohio State or Wisconsin on the way to have any real claim.
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Two playoff teams from 2007 take center stage on the NFL Network Sunday night in a Week 2 NFL betting match-up when the (0-1) New England Patriots betting head south to Florida for a contest with the (1-0) Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
New England HC Bill Belichick couldn’t care less about the way his team plays in the preseason. With a chance to tie last week’s game with the Baltimore Ravens betting, He elected to go for the two-point conversion and outright victory. The conversion failed, and the Pats ended up falling to the Ravens by a 16-15 final count.
New England rolled off twelve unanswered points to give it a chance at securing the victory, but it never threatened to cover the 3.5-point spread. NFL bettors saw this one coming, as they bet the Ravens down from +6 to +3.5 as the week progressed. QB Tom Brady didn’t take part in the Patriots first preseason clash, but could see action this weekend.
His three replacements all put up embarrassing numbers. They went a combined 17 for 33, and threw three interceptions and no touchdowns. The New England defense was encouraging, as they held the Ravens to 2/12 third down conversions and surrendered just ten first downs. That ‘D’ should be bolstered with the addition of former Bucs and Denver Broncos betting safety John Lynch, who could make his Patriots debut on Sunday against his former mates.
HC Jon Gruden had to be impressed with the way his Bucs played on both sides of the ball in their dominating 17-6 victory over the Miami Dolphins in Week 1’s NFL pre-season betting action. Bucs bettors were quite happy with the effort, as they made a mockery of the fact that they were underdogs in the game.
The logjam at the quarterback position didn’t get any easier to separate for Gruden, as all four of his QBs had positive experiences in the first exhibition of 2008. The four combined to complete 28 of their 40 passes for 204 yards and a touchdown, and that was without starting QB Jeff Garcia in the lineup.
RB Michael Bennett had 19 carries and four receptions, totaling 90 yards and a touchdown. Expect to see more of Bennett, Kenneth Darby, and Earnest Graham, as they all compete for playing time with Warrick Dunn in the backfield this season. Defensively, the Bucs recorded four sacks and held the Fins offense in check all day.
First round draft pick Aqib Talib was impressive in the secondary, recording a tackle and two pass defenses in his debut. Don’t be surprised to see Talib in the starting lineup opposite Ronde Barber for the Bucs in ’08.
The betting trends suggest that NFL bettors should be backing the Bucs in this intra-conference exhibition.
These two teams hooked up last year in Tampa Bay, with the Bucs winning that game 13-10. The Buccaneers have only lost one preseason game at home dating back to the beginning of the ’05 preseason. The Patriots have had a mixed bag of results in their recent exhibitions. They have gone 2-2 ATS and SU each of the last three years.
New England currently sits as modest 1-point favorites in this preseason showdown with the ‘total’ now sitting at 34.5.
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